Bayesian War Room

Expected value analysis for the 2026 Prediction Game

SEASON 1 • 2026 • UPDATED ...

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EV Trajectory Over Time

Recent Probability Shifts

EV Breakdown by Question

ID	Question	P(Yes/Fav)	Src	Justin	Barry	Ben

EV Risk Profiles

Bayesian War Room — 2026 Prediction Game

Justin, Barry & Ben

Probabilities updated weekly. Sources: prediction markets + assessment.